Bitcoin price is on track to end its six-year streak of September losses, despite a modest pullback ahead of a potential federal government shutdown. The largest crypto by market capitalization changed hands at $26,800 during Friday afternoon hours, posting a 3.2% return this month so far. However, BTC has declined 1.6% from the $27,400 it touched for a short time on Thursday. Extending this weak price action into the weekend could put BTC’s provisional positive monthly return in jeopardy as the crypto began September at just about $26,000.
Ether and other cryptocurrencies
Ether traded mostly flat at around $1,660, as market participants anticipate futures-based exchange-traded funds (ETF) to go live early next week. Ripple’s XRP, Solana’s SOL, and the Tron network’s native token TRON posted 3%-5% gains, outperforming the broader digital asset market. The Market Index (CMI) was down 0.5%.
Impact of the looming U.S. government shutdown
The looming U.S. government shutdown adds to the uncertainty and could delay regulatory decisions, as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) staff will be radically reduced. Digital asset investment firm NYDIG said that “a spot bitcoin ETF will have to wait until after SEC employees come back from a potential furlough.”
Despite the difficult macro picture, Asgard has a more constructive outlook for risk assets in Q4. “BTC and ETH are now trying to break upwards outside of their range established in the last month and a half,” Asgard said. “We are looking for a short-term move somewhere between $28,500 and a swipe of $30,000, for as long as BTC does not retrace below 26,000.”
Historical performance of Bitcoin in October
Historically, October has usually been a bullish month for bitcoin. Markus Thielen, Matrixport’s Head of Research, pointed out that “over the last 10 years, eight of those times in October, the market was actually up with an average of 22%,” adding that as soon as interest rates become dovish bitcoin is “going to break out quite aggressively.”
Thielen also argued that bitcoin miners, particularly Marathon Digital, are entering this next quarter with far more efficient operations. At the same time, the halving is still on everyone’s minds: Marathon Digital, according to Thielen, estimated their mining costs would increase from $24,000 to $29,000 per bitcoin. “Nevertheless, we need to really rally above 30,000,” he concluded.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the Bitcoin price is currently on a path to end its six-year streak of September losses, even with the modest pullback before the potential U.S. government shutdown. Although there is uncertainty due to the looming shutdown and its effect on regulatory decisions, some experts remain optimistic about the future of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in Q4.
The historical performance of Bitcoin in October also suggests a potential bullish trend, with more efficient mining operations and anticipation of futures-based ETFs going live. However, it is essential for Bitcoin to rally above $30,000 to maintain this momentum and continue breaking out of its established range.
