Bitcoin ETF excitement was reignited when the cryptocurrency’s price surged by 7% to $30,000 in a matter of minutes, following a misleading news headline about the SEC approving BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF application. The swift price movement serves as a reminder of how the market may react when a definitive verdict on spot ETF applications is reached. In this article, we will explore analysts’ views on the potential approval of a Bitcoin ETF and its impact on the market.
False alarm causes price spike
The recent rally was triggered by a false news headline, which led to a rapid 7% increase in Bitcoin’s price within just eight minutes. K33 Research analysts pointed out that Bitcoin had already gained 14% in the week following BlackRock’s application for a spot ETF in June. They believe that a potential approval could have a significant impact on the market, while a rejection would likely result in a market downturn.
Is the approval already priced in?
Alex Krüger of Asgard Markets argues that the approval is not fully priced into the market. He expects a significant price increase when the Bitcoin ETF is approved. However, Joe Consorti and Nik Bhatia of The Bitcoin Layer newsletter have a different view. They contend that the recent rally was insignificant and that much of the excitement and price gains from a spot ETF approval are already factored into Bitcoin’s price.
Bitcoin remains a risk asset
Consorti and Bhatia also note that Bitcoin continues to be a risk asset. They do not anticipate a wave of capital inflows into spot ETFs even if approval is granted. This perspective highlights the uncertainty surrounding the potential impact of a Bitcoin ETF on the market.
Enigma Securities: A “sell the news” event?
Enigma Securities has emphasized the market’s obsession with the spot Bitcoin ETF, stating that it is the most important catalyst for the cryptocurrency. However, they suggest that a potential approval could result in a “sell the news” event, with prices initially spiking before declining. They argue that the benefits of market access will play out over a longer period, rather than immediately.
What could happen if a real approval is granted?
If a spot Bitcoin ETF is approved, analysts believe that price gains could be even larger than the recent 7% surge. However, some suggest that the approval may already be priced into the market, leading to a “sell the news” event as mentioned by Enigma Securities. This means that prices could initially rise before declining, as investors take profits.
Conclusion: The market awaits a definitive verdict
The recent rally caused by the false ETF news serves as a reminder of how the market may react when a definitive verdict on spot ETF applications is reached. While some analysts believe that a Bitcoin ETF approval is not fully priced into the market and could lead to significant price gains, others argue that much of the excitement has already been factored in. Ultimately, the market awaits the SEC’s decision on spot Bitcoin ETF applications, which could have a considerable impact on the cryptocurrency’s price and the industry as a whole.
